The pattern is painfully familiar.
During planning, the team estimates a feature at two weeks. The estimate feels reasonable—they're accounting for the known work, they've padded a bit for unknowns.
But they're estimating best-case scenarios without realizing it. They don't account for: the meeting interrupt tax, the dependency that will slip, the edge case they haven't discovered yet, the code review iterations, the deployment issues, the 'quick fix' that becomes a rabbit hole.
Six weeks later, the feature ships. Marketing's launch campaign went out four weeks ago and fizzled.
Sales told a customer it would be ready by month-end—now they're managing an angry escalation. The next sprint starts behind because this sprint's spillover consumed the buffer.
Everyone knew the estimate was optimistic. But nobody had data to counter the optimism.
The pressure to give dates overrode the wisdom to give ranges. And the cycle continues.
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